arromdee@inetnow.net wrote:

On Mon, 30 Jun 1997, Captain Jack wrote:

My opinion is from something I've heard:  Man's understanding of the

world doubles about every 7 years.  This means by 2032, we will know

more than 32 times as much as we do today.  In as short of timespan

as

that, that is a great deal of knowlege that we will have learned.

There was an article in Analog magazine, in 1960, which proved, by
extrapolation, that we would have faster than light travel around
1982.  (I'm
not that old; I read it in a reprint collection.)

The problem with the reasoning?  A lot of trends follow an S-shaped
curve
where something increases slowly, then increases fast, then goes back
to
increasing slowly again.  We'll reach a point of diminishing returns.

But that seems to be correct only if you look at one field of research.
While one deminishes, there is always another field that will take its
place and increase its discoveries.  Eg.:  Space Travel and exploration
was rapid in the 1960's.  Now its not as large of a field.  Instead, we
have biochemistry and electronics that has picked up where other
research has left off.  So in whole, everything evens out when looked at
as discovery as a whole.

Whether this happens before we get boomers, hardsuits, and beam
satellites,
I have no idea, though.

I'm not saying these will happen by 2032 because science is not working
towards that goal at this point.  But other discoveries will be on that
level 35 years from now.

Captain Jack