At 11:49 1/31/97, Richard Lawson wrote:

Sebastian Weinberg wrote:

: Nouma grimaced; he was losing ground here. She was becoming angrier, now
: that all of her suspicions had been confirmed. Nevertheless, he tried to
: see it through. "To paraphrase the esteemed Mr. Holmes, when you eliminate
: the highly probable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the
: truth.

I *still* don't get this.  Why would you want to discard the
highly probable in favour of the improbable?  What is the
relevance of this paraphrase to Nouma's argument for considering
magic?

And I *still* don't see your problem with this.

"Aha!"  said the detective.  "The murderer was left-handed, had a limp,
and was wearing a Ranma 1/2 t-shirt.  You, sir, are left handed, have a
limp, and are wearing a Ranma 1/2 t-shirt.  Therefore, it is highly
probable that you are the murdered."

Anou... he is, unless the detective is addressing a corpse, also still
alive, and therefore NOT likely to be the "murdered"  ^_^

"But sir, I was in Mexico the night of the murder.  Look, here is a list
of 1,000 people who can verify this."

"Ah.  Well, then, I have to eliminate you as a suspect, don't I?"

Get it?

No.  The point is that since, to use your example, the person was in
Mexico, it was IMPOSSIBLE for him to have committed the crime, and he was
therefore eliminated as a suspect.  Hence the original quote where after
the elimination of the IMPOSSIBLE, whatever is left, no matter how
IMPROBABLE, being the solution.  The paraphrase makes no real sense,
because the suspect is discarded NOT for being probable, but because it was
impossible for him to have committed the crime.  Sorry, Richard!  Zen has
to agree with Sebastian-san on this one.

Sebastian

--
-Richard
sterman@sprynet.com

Zen no Itan-sha